Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Current Tropical Discussion For Pacific Basin

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


249
ABPZ20 KNHC 172331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lane, located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
North Pacific basin.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organized since yesterday.
Additional gradual development of this system is possible during the
next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)

...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 17
 the center of Lane was located near 11.8, -135.6
 with movement W at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 964 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018  

861 
WTPZ34 KNHC 180233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 135.6W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1855 MI...2985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near
latitude 11.8 North, longitude 135.6 West.  Lane is moving toward
the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A motion between west and
west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and
Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Lane is now a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is
expected during the next 12 hours or so, and Lane could become a
category 4 hurricane tonight or Saturday.  After that, some
fluctuations in intensity are expected Saturday night and Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



          

Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018  

860 
WTPZ24 KNHC 180233
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 135.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 


          

Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018  

678 
WTPZ44 KNHC 180234
TCDEP4

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several
hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the
central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger.
Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115
kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt
in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.
The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and
there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the
southeastern semicircle.

The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic.
With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity
guidance shows much additional strengthening.  However, except for
the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of
the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current
rapid intensification should stop that quickly.  The intensity
forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by
a period of little change from 12-48 h.  This portion of the
intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance.  After 48 h,
Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should
increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken.  This portion of the intensity forecast lies near
or a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is 280/14.  Lane is forecast to move south of a
subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward
direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed
by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly.  There is some spread in
the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the
north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET
Ensemble mean on the south side.  As in the previous advisory,
little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to
the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



          

Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018


272 
FOPZ14 KNHC 180234
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105  
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 140W       34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 140W       34  X   7( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  67(73)  10(83)   1(84)   X(84)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)  11(45)   X(45)   X(45)
15N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
10N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  55(56)  23(79)   1(80)
15N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  26(47)   1(48)
15N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  19(29)   X(29)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   7(33)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  31(52)
15N 155W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)
15N 155W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
18N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Hurricane Lane Graphics


Hurricane Lane 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 02:36:33 GMT

Hurricane Lane 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 03:28:15 GMT