Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Current Tropical Discussion For Pacific Basin
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
249
ABPZ20 KNHC 172331
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lane, located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
North Pacific basin.
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organized since yesterday.
Additional gradual development of this system is possible during the
next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)
...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 the center of Lane was located near 11.8, -135.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018
861 WTPZ34 KNHC 180233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 ...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 135.6W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1855 MI...2985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 135.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so, and Lane could become a category 4 hurricane tonight or Saturday. After that, some fluctuations in intensity are expected Saturday night and Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018
860 WTPZ24 KNHC 180233 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018
678 WTPZ44 KNHC 180234 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the southeastern semicircle. The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic. With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity guidance shows much additional strengthening. However, except for the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current rapid intensification should stop that quickly. The intensity forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by a period of little change from 12-48 h. This portion of the intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance. After 48 h, Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. This portion of the intensity forecast lies near or a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is 280/14. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly. There is some spread in the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET Ensemble mean on the south side. As in the previous advisory, little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018
272
FOPZ14 KNHC 180234
PWSEP4
HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 140W 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 67(73) 10(83) 1(84) X(84)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23)
10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 23(79) 1(80)
15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 26(47) 1(48)
15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) X(29)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 31(52)
15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23)
18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Lane Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 02:36:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 03:28:15 GMT
