Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS62 KILM 240509 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 110 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fairly seasonable temperatures through Friday. A storm system will approach over the weekend bringing a gradual increase in rain chances. && .UPDATE... Previous forecast remains on track. No big changes necessary. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A mid-level trough will deepen across the southern plains through the period. Increasing southwest flow across the southeast CONUS will push surface high pressure, currently centered over northern Alabama, northeast and off the Mid- Atlantic coast by Thursday night. As a result, the near term will remain dry and mostly clear, with light winds veering from north this afternoon to ENE by Thursday night. Will lean towards the cooler MOS guidance for low temps tonight, given clear skies and a decent chance that many locations away from the coast will decouple. Highs Thursday will be close to climo...generally 73-75. As dewpoints surge into the 50s, and with increasing high clouds, min temps Thursday night will range from low 50s inland to upper 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A closed low will drift eastward along the Red River Valley of north TX and southern OK Friday and Friday night, and will draw moisture from a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico northward. This moisture should remain along or west of the Appalachians, however persistent low-level onshore flow around high pressure over New England may start to push a few showers in from the Atlantic Saturday and Saturday night, along with a weak coastal trough/warm front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The chance of rain will rise on Sunday as SW flow develops at all levels and we finally see the arrival of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Will maintain PoPs around 50% Sunday, and scattered showers look to linger on Monday and Monday night before a cold front finally sweeps through on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions thruout the 06Z Taf Issuance Period. Mainly NE-ENE winds at 6 kt or less thru the period. The exception will be the coastal terminals where winds will temporarily veer to the E-ESE at 9 to 12 kt between 16Z and 23Z due to a weak resultant wind from daytime insolation. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. With possible MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low stratus Fri and Sat mornings...and from pcpn and clouds ahead of a cold front Sun into Mon. && .MARINE... Modest CAA earlier today has waned, and low-level jetting that produced gusts to 25 kts this morning has shifted further offshore. Surface high pressure over northern AL will shift to northern VA by early Thursday, and this will result in N winds 10-15 kts becoming northeast. High pressure will linger off the Mid-Atlantic coast and New England states through Saturday and maintain a general onshore flow across the coastal waters. A weak coastal trough, accompanied by scattered showers, should get pushed onshore late Saturday, followed by winds veering to the south Saturday night. Winds will continue to veer to the S and SW Sunday and Monday well ahead of a cold front, which will be crossing the MS River Valley Monday. Scattered showers are expected to persist ahead of this front. Seas are expected to build to 4 ft Saturday night through Sunday...otherwise generally 2-3 ft expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...RGZ/CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...DCH MARINE...CRM