Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 061611
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1210 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warmup will begin today as high pressure moves off the coast.
Upper level disturbances may bring isolated showers and storms
this afternoon and again on Tuesday. A cold front arrives
late Thursday with a return of seasonable weather for the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Hi-res models continue to show scattered development of
thunderstorms this afternoon despite dry air in both the surface
layer and cloud layer. While there is expected to be some storm
coverage this afternoon, their coverage should be more isolated
than models are depicting. Coverage is likely to be concentrated
to areas in NC with lingering showers possible in areas of NE
SC. A few storms could reach the severe threshold (details
below).

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 1020 mb high pressure centered directly
over the area with a cold front just off to the NW. The front is
expected to stay N of the area today, allowing for temps to remain
above normal...highs in the lwr 80s most inland areas with 70s right
at the coast. Despite the front staying off to the N, small
perturbations in the WNW flow aloft will allow for the development
of shras/tstms this aftn/eveng. Still capped PoPs in the chance
range though due to plenty of dry air in mid levels limiting
coverage. Any tstms that do form have the potential to be strong to
severe, due to very steep low-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt deep
layer shear. The greatest threat is over NC where the rain chances
are highest. Any rain dissipates overnight tonight, with temps only
bottoming out in the upr 50s to lwr 60s.

Not much change in the overall pattern into Tue. SPC has the entire
area in a Marginal Risk for severe wx, and will highlight this
threat in the HWO. Again...coverage will just be isolated to
scattered, but any storms that do form have severe potential due to
the favorable parameters in place. Temps Tue very similar to those
of today...highs in the lwr 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak southern stream shortwave will pass south of the area Tue
night into Wed. Southern portions of the forecast area may see
isolated showers linger into the first half of Tue night, but then
the region will dry out. Clouds in the area early Wed decrease
through the day and into Wed night as deep west to northwest flow
sets up. Inversion around 4k ft suggest minimal chance for
convection during peak heating. Temperatures will run well above
climo through the period with region under the influence of surface
high off the southeast coast and along the northern edge of a flat
ridge over the Gulf States.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northern stream mid-level trough will push a cold front into the
region Thu night. Ahead of the front strong warm advection will keep
temps well above climo. Fropa appears dry at this time, due to an
absence of moisture. Following the front, cool surface high builds
in from the northwest as the front stalls along the Gulf Coast and
across northern FL. Potential for weak southern stream shortwave and
frontal wave moving east late week into early next week with
potential for unsettled weather along or just off the coast.
However, confidence is extremely low at this juncture.

- Above climo temperatures Thu dropping below climo Fri and Sat
  following passage of dry cold front Thu night.

- Rainfall chances appear limited for much of the long term
  with perhaps best chance being late Sat or Sun.

- Temps above climo Sat night and Sun as warm advection sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak disturbance is expected to drop southeast into the CWA by
late afternoon. Storms are expected to be isolated, however storms
that due form could have gusty winds. West southwest winds this
afternoon will diminish tonight, however some speed shear is
expected just off the deck.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions again possible with
isolated TSTMs on Tuesday. Flight restrictions lift mid-week,
and look clear through at least Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through at least Tue as
sfc high pres slides off the SE coast and a frontal boundary remains
just off to the N. Expect primarily SW flow of 10-20 kt through Tue,
with 2-4 ft seas, which includes a 1-2 ft 12 second Easterly
swell.

Southwest flow will persist Tue night through Thu night with pinched
gradient Tue night relaxing Wed into Thu before tightening back up
later Thu. Period of strongest southwest flow will be Tue night and
late Thu into Thu night. Seas 3 to 5 ft will be possible with the
strongest winds Tue night and Thu night, otherwise 2 to 4 ft is more
likely. Seas will be mostly made up of south to southwest wind wave
with a weak easterly swell component at times. Passage of dry cold
front Thu night into Fri veers winds to northwest for Fri. Offshore
component will knock seas back to 2 to 3 by afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/III

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion