Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 171433
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
933 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and cloudy conditions will prevail today, with patchy
drizzle at times. Another cold front will bring a chance of rain
tonight and Monday. A stalled front and increasing Gulf
moisture will maintain unsettled conditions through the end of
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 930 AM Sunday...Cloudy and cool conditions expected today
with a surface ridge in place across the Carolinas. The old
front positioned across GA this morning will creep northward
later today and tonight allowing for a nocturnal increase in
temperatures. Meanwhile, a subtropical jet is spreading
moisture from TX into the Appalachians. Isentropic lift at 295k
is shown to increase across the Carolinas during today while
lift at 300k increases more-so tonight. Based on the
orientation of the isentropic lift the best rainfall chances
will be inland areas today, then remaining areas tonight. During
Monday, the deeper moisture shifts off the coast with the old
front to shift back off the coast later in the day. Some
clearing is expected as a result along with diminishing rain
chances. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal
ahead of the boundary. No major changes made to the current
forecast today through Monday with the latest update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Period begins with front south of the area and
expansive high building in from the Upper Midwest. Progressive flow
aloft shifts the high over the Great Lakes Tue and the Northeast Tue
night. This allows weak coastal trough to develop over the nearshore
waters Tue into Tue night. Initially isentropic lift will be weak
and moisture below 7k ft is limited. On Tue the influence of the
high starts to weaken as low pressure starts to organize along the
boundary in the Lower MS Valley. Clouds will thicken and lower on
Tue with isentropic lift increasing late in the day. Light rain will
slowly spread over the forecast area from southwest to northeast
late Tue and Tue night. Forcing is not particularly strong and low
level dry air will be reluctant to modify. Best rainfall chances
will be late Tue night for most of the area. Cold advection and
cloud cover will keep highs below climo on Tue but cloud cover and
mixing will keep lows a little above climo both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Unsettled conditions will be the theme of the
long term with the forecast area in a wavering frontal zone through
Saturday. Mid-level ridging over the Bahamas and Southwest troughing
will prevent any features really capable of removing the frontal
zone while allowing a series of developing low passage through the
TN and OH Valleys.

-Although precip chances will be elevated for much of the
 period, total rainfall for the week will be limited.

-Most areas will see a quarter to half an inch of rainfall
 during the period. It is very unlikely that any day will be a
 washout.

-Although the front will be south of the area at times cold air
 will be lacking and high temperatures will be near to slightly
 above climo.

-Cloud cover and moisture will keep lows above to well above
 climo.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12Z....A wedge will prevail through the day, then break down
tonight as a warm front begins to wave northward. Look for IFR/near
IFR ceilings to continue through much of the day. Tonight, as the
winds shift back to the south, expect some fairly dense fog to set
up a few hours after dark. Some showers are possible at the end of
the forecast period.

 Extended Outlook...In general, unsettled weather
through Wednesday with IFR/LIFR conditions possible at times.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 930 AM Sunday...A surface ridge currently remains in
control across the Carolinas supporting NEly flow initially. The
ridge will break down and the old front will lift northward
allowing the winds to veer to a S-SW direction overnight. This
fetch will increase but is currently expected to support winds
just below Small Craft criteria. The front will shift back off
the coast during the day on Monday allowing for winds to become
offshore. However, a weakening pressure gradient in the wake of
the boundary along with nominal cold air advection supports
weakening winds by the afternoon. Seas of 4-5 ft are expected
tonight into early Monday morning, otherwise they will be 3 ft
or less.

Weak coastal trough starts to take shape Tue, becoming more defined
Tue night. Trough develops as surface high, over the Upper Midwest
Mon night, quickly shifts east Tue and Tue night. Cold front that
building high pushes south of the waters will return north Wed into
Thu, shifting northeast winds to southwest for the middle of the
week. Front will linger just north of the area through Thu. Gradient
will be pinched at times, with wind speeds close to 20 kt. Seas
build to 3 to 5 ft late Mon night or early Tue in response to
northeast flow increasing to near 20 kt and seas in excess of 6 ft
will be possible Tue night into Wed. The development of southwest
winds later Wed will create chaotic seas, but decreasing speeds
should allow seas to fall during the mid to late week period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...TRA

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion