Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 120241
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
941 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable high pressure will affect the area tonight
through Thursday. Low pressure enters the region early Friday,
continuing into Saturday. Expect substantial rain totaling
between 2 to 3 inches from this storm system. High pressure
returns Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 941 PM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control of
the weather tonight through Wednesday, which will bring sunny
skies and dry conditions through the near term forecast period.
As a result of the cooler air mass and clear skies tonight,
temperatures are on track to drop into the upper 20s to lower
30s across the region. Latest model soundings show some lower
moisture at the lower levels as a result of recent rainfall and
saturated ground conditions, but with overnight temperatures at
or near freezing should result in a frosty night. Some minor
patches of fog cannot be ruled out tonight, but widespread fog
tonight is not anticipated at this time.

Southerly wind directions at the surface Wednesday will cause an
uptick in afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 50s under
plenty of sunshine, which is just a few degrees below normal for
mid December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...Zonal to weak ridging aloft will dominate
Wed night into Thu. The center of sfc high pressure overhead Wed
night will provide a decent radiational cooling night if the
Cirrus aloft is not too thick. Went along with the colder
guidance for Thu lows. The ridge axis aloft pushes overhead and
east of the FA by Thu evening. This will open up flow from the
SW with tapping of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The flow
aloft will continue to amplify due to the intensifying upper s/w
emerging out of the southern Rockies and closing off as it
reaches the NW Gulf Coast States by Friday daybreak. Flow in the
lower levels on the backside of the high Thu thru Thu night
will provide increasing Atlantic moisture across the FA. Have
indicate stratiform light rain breaking out and overspreading
the FA from SW to NE, mainly after midnight Fri, with POPs in
the mid to high end chance by daybreak Fri. Max temps Thu will
be right at climo with Thu night lows only dropping into the mid
and upper 40s via latest MOS consensus.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...Excellent pcpn event shaping up for the
forecast area with storm totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches
in the time range between Pre-dawn Fri and Sunset Saturday.
Possibly more if the closed upper low over the Gulf Coast
States takes its sweet o`le time lifting toward the NE. The
longer it takes, the longer the inflow of moisture from both the
Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. No pcpn type issues!! Much too
warm!! The bulk of the pcpn will fall from midday Friday thru
Sat daybreak...along with the threat of isolated thunderstorms
especially ahead and along the occluded front as it lifts across
the FA by daybreak Sat. During Sat into Sun, the upper low
lifts across the FA and will continue to carry chance POPs as a
result. Temps will be on the mild side  The sfc pg remains
tightened, keeping winds breezy especially during daylight. For
Mon into Tue, WNW to NW flow aloft becomes better entrenched
across the FA could be the beginnings of a change in the
longwave pattern aloft. Have indicated a decrease in MAX/MIN
temps each successive day from Sun thru Tue. During this latter
range, sfc high pressure will drop southeast from Canada aiding
the colder trend during the 3 days (Sun thru Tue).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...Excellent pcpn event shaping up for the
forecast area with storm totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches
in the time range between Pre-dawn Fri and Sunset Saturday.
Possibly more if the closed upper low over the Gulf Coast
States takes its sweet o`le time lifting toward the NE. The
longer it takes, the longer the inflow of moisture from both the
Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. No pcpn type issues!! Much too
warm!! The bulk of the pcpn will fall from midday Friday thru
Sat daybreak...along with the threat of isolated thunderstorms
especially ahead and along the occluded front as it lifts across
the FA by daybreak Sat. During Sat into Sun, the upper low
lifts across the FA and will continue to carry chance POPs as a
result. Temps will be on the mild side  The sfc pg remains
tightened, keeping winds breezy especially during daylight. For
Mon into Tue, WNW to NW flow aloft becomes better entrenched
across the FA could be the beginnings of a change in the
longwave pattern aloft. Have indicated a decrease in MAX/MIN
temps each successive day from Sun thru Tue. During this latter
range, sfc high pressure will drop southeast from Canada aiding
the colder trend during the 3 days (Sun thru Tue).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...Only potential aviation concern overnight will be a
slight chance of fog. Most areas will be at or below freezing by
08Z, so any condensation will likely end up being frost. Winds will
become near calm by 02Z. Wednesday, another VFR sunny day with only
cirrus drifting in from time to time. Light winds.

Extended Outlook...VFR continuing through Thu before a return
to MVFR Fri potentially due to another coastal low bringing
lower ceilings and visibility due to rain and even a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 941 PM Tuesday...SCA has been allowed to expire this
evening as wave heights and wind speeds have diminished below
threshold levels of concern. High pressure continues to dominate
tonight through Wednesday with little concern for wave heights
through the near term forecast period. Expect waves between 2
and 3 feet with mainly offshore winds between 5 and 10 kts.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...Mariners will have favorable conditions
from sunset Wed thru sunset Thu to venture out into the
Atlantic, Winyah Bay and along the Intra-Coastal Waterway.
This a result of sfc high pressure overhead. Winds and sea
conditions will begin to deteriorate Thu night as the high
slides offshore and a very dynamic low taking shape across the
Northern Gulf Coast by the end of this period. Look for ENE to
ESE winds to increase to 15 to 20 kt by daybreak Fri and
building wind driven seas to 3 to 5 ft. And in addition,
reduced vsby from pcpn.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM Monday...Winds and sea conditions will NOT be
favorable for mariners this period. A well tightened sfc pg
ahead of the occluded front Fri thru Fri night, will produce
SE winds Fri, S Winds Fri night, in the 20 to 30 kt range
with a few gusts up to Gale Force mainly Fri night as the
occlusion pushes closer. Seas will respond and build to 6 to 10
ft with the higher seas off Cape Fear and Romaine respectively.
Mainly dealing with windwaves with not much of a ground swell
aiding seas during this time-line. And will have areas of vsby
reduced to 1 nm or lower at times from the heavier rain and
isolated thunderstorms. Expect improving wx conditions by
midday Sat thru Sun as the closed low lifts northeast of the
area. The sfc pg to relax ever so slightly, but will be
conducive to 15 to 20 kt winds. After the occlusion pushes thru
early Sat, expect Westerly directions veering to NW on Sun.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MCK

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion