Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS62 KILM 261105 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 705 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build slowly into the Carolinas through mid week with hot and mainly dry weather. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain limited through much of the week into the weekend. The best chance will come late Sunday into early Monday as a front drops south through the Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Not much change from the previous forecast as ridge of high pressure aloft is still progged to build over the next 36 hours. Some isolated pop up showers are possible along the coast this afternoon as convective temperatures are nearly reached, but lack of moisture in upper profile makes chances slim. Warm days continue with afternoon heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s each day. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Very uneventful weather expected for the end of the workweek. Convective chances will be at a premium although our area is seemingly in what would be a better mid level configuration with greater heights to our west and east. Will maintain the slight chance values knowing how sometimes the models sometimes transition in time to a wetter scenario. The temperature forecast is on the warm side of climatology although not exceedingly so. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...The extended period looks interesting in the fact that a sharp ridge may develop in the Tennessee Valley putting us back in a northwest flow pattern. Still a little too early to tell definitively and will maintain the lower to slight chance pops. Temperatures remain on the warm side as well with daytime highs well into the 90s most days and steamy overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12z...VFR. Mostly clear skies, with few to scattered afternoon cumulus and some cirrus clouds throughout period, as high pressure builds over the area. Winds pretty light and variable, with generally northerly winds around 5kts inland today and 5 kt southeasterly winds along the coast. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR through the period with brief MVFR/IFR conditions with possible early morning fog and/or low stratus. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM Wednesday...It`s officially summer time and this means somewhat benign conditions for days on end across the waters with a southerly component to the winds. Early on expect more of an onshore flow transitioning to more southwest and increase in speed as the Piedmont Trough becomes more established. Significant seas will mostly be 2-3 feet but increase with the increase in wind speeds to 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...VAO MARINE...SHK