Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS62 KILM 210109 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 809 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry air will spread across the Carolinas tonight through Thanksgiving as high pressure builds from the west. Low pressure from the Gulf will bring a rainy start to the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM Tuesday...Cold front via night infrared satellite imagery continues to push through the coastal plain with west winds shifting to the north. Some patchy fog with visibility reductions between 5 and 6 miles ahead of the boundary have been occurring after sunset with dew point readings in the lower 50s. Directly behind the front, dew points in the mid 30s to lower 40s have no visibility reductions under clear skies. Once dry air moves into the area during the next few hours, expecting patchy ground-type fog to diminish. The rest of the forecast tonight into Wednesday remains on track with some patchy frost possible towards the early morning hours Wednesday toward sunrise. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday under clear skies will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, which is also 5 to 10 degrees below normal for November. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Essentially a temperature forecast through the period as cold surface high pressure builds down into the area from the north/northeast. There remains the possibility of freezing conditions area wide for Friday morning but just a little too far out in time to make that call. The NAM/MET has been too cold for the coldest temperatures so far this season is advertising the coldest readings. The GFS/MAV numbers seem more reasonable especially with an advection event as the surface winds should remain elevated. Long story short, stay tuned. Little to no change with the Thanksgiving Day forecast, sunny and cool with highs in the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...After a cold start Friday morning, the main feature in the extended period will be the storm system developing across the lower Mississippi Valley later Friday and moving across our area Saturday. Overall the system doesn`t look quite as amplified as earlier versions hence the QPF fields are a little more disorganized. Still pops remain high for Friday night into Saturday and I did incrementally increase values to address a little more certainty. A quick moving secondary system, that once looked like quite the rainmaker for our area is now very progressive in nature and will bring a cold front quickly through the area with slight to low chance pops early nest week. Overall temperatures remain above climatology for most of the period but the late front Monday seems to usher in the coldest airmass of the season just beyond this forecast period. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0Z...Current VFR conditions at all terminals will continue throughout TAF period due to surface high pressure building in from the west. Lingering scattered clouds will move out over the next few hours leading to clear skies. Winds will shift to northerly at all terminals and remain so, with slight backing to northwesterly towards end of TAF period. Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail next couple of days. Storm system Friday night into Saturday could bring rain and potential IFR/MVFR conditions to the region. VFR Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM Tuesday...As cold front pushes through the offshore waters, west winds 15 to 20 mph with isolated occasional gusts up to 25 were reported by offshore buoys. Wave heights have been on the order of 3 to 5 feet. Small craft should exercise caution during the next few hours until the cold front completes the pass over the coastal waters. High pressure Wednesday will bring NNW winds between 10 and 15 kts and waves between 2 and 3 feet offshore. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds and seas will build through the period as surface high pressure builds in from the northeast. This on the strength of good mid level confluence to the west. Overall expect small craft conditions to develop Thursday and persist well into the next period. More specifically winds will increase from 10-15 knots to 15-20 (maybe a little over at times) with seas following a similar upward trend from 2-4 feet up to 4-7 feet. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Lower confidence in regards to winds early in the period as models are erratic showing a closed low here and there as the mid level forcing for a decent storm system wavers. I basically maintained the overall trend of northeast winds early, transitioning to southeast then finally west to northwest as the system exits the area late in the weekend. Seas could eclipse small craft criteria early with a lingering fetch from the northeast then the decent flow with the passing storm system. Some relief is expected with the offshore flow later in the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MCK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...VAO MARINE...ILM