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502
ABNT20 KNHC 172311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles north of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

...ERNESTO RACING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SATURDAY MORNING...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 17
 the center of Ernesto was located near 50.4, -25.6
 with movement ENE at 35 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018  

305 
WTNT35 KNHC 180231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO RACING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SATURDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.4N 25.6W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM N OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 50.4 North, longitude 25.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the
forecast track the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants will move
across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical overnight, and slight
weakening is forecast to occur Saturday while Ernesto merges with a
frontal zone by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the south and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



          

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018  

304 
WTNT25 KNHC 180231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.4N  25.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 300SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.4N  25.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.8N  27.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N  18.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.1N  10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.4N  25.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




          

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018  

221 
WTNT45 KNHC 180232
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated
after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return,
which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or
less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early
Saturday.

Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate
that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the
low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a
large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and
on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is
forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it
approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night.
The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it
moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early
Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion
should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to
the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 50.4N  25.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 52.3N  18.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  19/0000Z 54.1N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan



          

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018


220 
FONT15 KNHC 180232
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 50.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics


Tropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 02:34:05 GMT

Tropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 02:34:05 GMT