Extended Forecasts from Carolina StormWatch

Compare NWS vs WxSIM Forecasts Being Withing 2 Degrees

NWS Forecasts

Tonight

Tonight: Clear then Patchy Fog
Clear then Patchy Fog

Lo 42 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Patchy Fog then Sunny
Patchy Fog then Sunny

Hi 67 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 46 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 69 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy

Lo 55 °F
Monday

Monday: Rain Showers Likely
Rain Showers Likely

Hi 68 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Rain Showers
Rain Showers

Lo 58 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Rain Showers
Rain Showers

Hi 70 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Rain Showers Likely
Rain Showers Likely

Lo 59 °F

WxSim Forecasts

Tonight

Clear
Clear
Low: 42°
Saturday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 70°
Saturday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 46°
Sunday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 71°
Sunday
night
Fog
Fog
Low: 54°
Monday

Chance rain
Chance rain
High: 67°
Monday
night
Rain likely
Rain likely
Low: 57°
Tuesday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 67°
Tuesday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 55°


WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

4AM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

6AM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

8AM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

10AM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

12PM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

2PM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

4PM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

6PM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

8PM Forecasts
Updated: at
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ
% Succ                                                
Ave Error                                                
Net Error                                                
Std Dev                                                

10PM Forecasts
Updated: January 19, 2018 at 10:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
January 19, 2018 31   29 58   62 38   34 62   67 40   38 65   70 51   56 64   69
January 18, 2018 26 22.8 24 54 40.3 58 32   27 60   63 38   32 60   67 39   37 64   71
January 17, 2018 22 22.1 19 42 56.8 45 27 22.8 25 54 40.3 59 32   28 57   63 39   33 64   67
January 13, 2018 25 28.9 24 40 55.2 46 21 22.1 20 46 56.8 50 26 22.8 24 50 40.3 59 32   31 42   47
January 12, 2018 47 34.3 42 54 67.3 56 29 28.9 27 42 55.2 47 24 22.1 21 45 56.8 51 27 22.8 24 49 40.3 57
January 11, 2018 62 58.6 61 69 75.0 74 50 34.3 44 55 67.3 56 30 28.9 31 43 55.2 48 24 22.1 24 45 56.8 53
January 10, 2018 53 55.0 52 67 71.4 75 60 58.6 55 68 75.0 74 53 34.3 53 55 67.3 57 31 28.9 35 45 55.2 51
January 09, 2018 41 39.4 37 59 67.4 65 51 55.0 44 66 71.4 72 59 58.6 55 68 75.0 73 50 34.3 51 58 67.3 64
January 08, 2018 39 37.4 37 56 54.3 66 42 39.4 37 61 67.4 68 50 55.0 46 66 71.4 74 56 58.6 56 68 75.0 75
January 07, 2018 22 16.3 17 51 35.0 58 37 37.4 38 58 54.3 65 41 39.4 38 54 67.4 65 51 55.0 47 66 71.4 76
January 06, 2018 13 14.4 14 35 34.2 40 21 16.3 21 50 35.0 58 37 37.4 37 57 54.3 62 42 39.4 39 59 67.4 59
January 05, 2018 16 17.1 16 35 37.6 36 13 14.4 16 35 34.2 39 23 16.3 24 56 35.0 61 42 37.4 43 57 54.3 55
January 04, 2018 14 13.3 18 33 38.3 41 14 17.1 18 34 37.6 38 12 14.4 17 40 34.2 41 28 16.3 25 57 35.0 64
January 03, 2018 22 22.3 23 38 34.2 40 14 13.3 16 35 38.3 39 15 17.1 18 36 37.6 37 18 14.4 18 43 34.2 41
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 6 2 2 6 4 1 5 5 5 1 2 1 3 0 2
% Succ 61.5   46.2 15.4   15.4 50.0   33.3 8.3   41.7 45.5   45.5 9.1   18.2 10.0   30.0     20.0
Ave Error 2.9   2.5 8.2   8.3 3.3   3.6 7.9   7.2 4.0   4.4 9.4   8.2 5.3   5.5 9.4   7.8
Net Error 1.5   0.2 -2.6   2.5 1.6   0.1 -2.4   2.7 2.2   1.6 -2.2   3.0 4.0   3.3 -1.0   3.8
Std Dev 3.2   2.2 5.8   6.8 4.2   3.4 5.3   7.3 5.3   5.5 5.8   6.2 5.0   5.4 6.2   6.6